地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法     

罗兰格 《华北地震科学》1994,(3)

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。  相似文献   

Prediction of the occurrence of Related Strong Earthquakes in Italy     

Inessa A. Vorobieva  Giuliano F. Panza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,141(1):25-41

In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicenter of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the world, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. To date it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict.The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, often the series of strong earthquakes is relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such a situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely preliminary recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence.  相似文献   

首都减灾圈的思考与建议     

张少泉  吕庆书 《地震》1993,(5):47-61

首都减灾圈,系首都减轻自然灾害预测防治圈。1991年12月20—21日在北京召开了《首都圈自然灾害及其减灾对策研讨会》。本文根据这次会议所提供的材料,在从整体上实现减灾的思想指导下,就首都减灾圈的“成灾背景”、“首都减灾圈的组成”、“首都减灾圈的灾害预测与防治状况”、“首都减灾圈的灾害关联性分析”、“首都减灾圈的减灾实效预估”和“首都减灾圈的减灾对策与实施”等六个带有共同性的问题,进行了讨论。供制定首都圈减灾方案时参考。  相似文献   

新疆地震预报研究     

朱令人 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):90-105

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。  相似文献   

地震短临综合预报方法的研究     

李文英  平建军 《华北地震科学》1995,13(3):36-43

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用  相似文献   

关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

“煤特征指数”与矿井瓦斯危险类型的关系     

张世平 《煤田地质与勘探》1992,20(6):36-39

矿井瓦斯危险程度与煤层中瓦斯赋存状况及其泄出方式有关,并取决于多种地质条件和采掘工艺。其中,煤特征条件特别重要。本文分析了湖南省的5种矿井瓦斯危险类型以及相应的煤特征条件,提出了“煤特征指数(I_c)”这一概念。I_c是一项评价矿井瓦斯危险程度的综合指标。研究表明,矿井瓦斯危险愈严重,则其I_c值愈高。应用该项成果预测了16对矿井的瓦斯危险类型,取得了满意的效果。  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

范洪顺  王碧泉 《地球物理学报》1990,33(3):297-307

本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.  相似文献   

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Huai-zhong Yu  Zheng-kang Shen  Yong-ge Wan  Qing-yong Zhu  Xiang-chu Yin   《Tectonophysics》2006,428(1-4):87-94

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.  相似文献